
Where does the IEA stand in the peak oil argument? (Nowhere relevant to the world)
"Our analysis suggests there are ample physical oil and liquid fuel resources for the foreseeable future. However, the rate at which new supplies can be developed and the break-even prices for those new supplies are changing. Global oil production levels are also dependent on the production policy of OPEC, which holds between one and six million barrels per day of spare capacity in reserve. Declining oil production in any given year can occur for one of several reasons unrelated to peak production, including OPEC production decisions, unplanned field stoppages and the impact of earlier investment decisions by the oil industry. A combination of sustained high prices and energy policies aimed at greater end-use efficiency and diversification in energy supplies might actually mean that peak oil demand occurs in the future before the resource base is anything like exhausted. " From IEA.Org Faqs about Oil http://www.iea.org/aboutus/faqs/oil/
SUSTAIN EARTH NETWORK - ANALYSIS
When we analyze what the International Energy Agency (IEA) is really saying here about the peak of global oil production, we don't find any lack of oil, only a lack of relevant focus:
- "Ample physical oil and liquid fuel resources"
- "Rate at which new supplies can be developed"
- "Production policy of OPEC"
- "Declining oil production...unrelated to peak oil"
- "Peak oil demand occurs...before...resource base is...exhausted"
What does availability of resources have to do with peak oil? Absolutely nothing, Peak oil means that we have exhausted 50% of the world oil reserves and production thereafter will go into decline until it runs out. Every day we burn oil we are running out of oil, just as your glass is becoming empty with every sip you take.
No one is saying that we don't have oil, or that peak oil is about the ability to supply oil. Oil will be there at peak - as much as we have burned since 1850 when oil production began.
The REAL issue about peak oil is the price spike associated with peak oil and hence the affordability of oil. Economists are projecting oil at peak of around $400 per barrel (that is expected to last 6-12 months), and a consequent demand destruction that will likely trigger a global supply chain transportation meltdown. That is serious. No mention about it by IEA. How responsible is that?
Why is the IEA silent on this matter? There is a lot of blah blah discussion on OPEC policy, possible causes of declining oil production not related to peak oil, and peak of global oil demand. Yet, while the IEA claims they are "Working together to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy", they are silent about the affordability issue, the real issue, of peak oil, and are simply diverting everyone to the non-issue of availability.
Sustain Earth Network challenges the IEA to be more transparent about the potential disastrous effects of peak oil price spikes and the impact of the global food supply chain. The weakest segments of the population are at risk of not being able to afford to buy food and transport themselves for their livelihood. Sustainability depends on affordable oil for the foreseeable future.

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